Markov Model I

Yearly Rupture Rate (YRR)

Cumulative Rupture Probability (CRP)

Range

Mean

Range

Mean

Year 5

0.1% - 40.4%

0.5% ± 2.6%

0.2% - 92.5%

1.9% ± 7.1%

Year 10

0.1% - 40.5%

0.6% ± 2.6%

0.7% - 99.4%

3.7% ± 9.4%

Year 15

0.1% - 40.5%

0.7% ± 2.6%

1.3% - 100.0%

5.8% ± 10.9%

Year 20

0.2% - 40.6%

0.8% ± 2.6%

2.1% - 100.0%

8.2% ± 11.9%

Year 25

0.2% - 40.6%

0.9% ± 2.6%

3.0% - 100.0%

10.9% ± 12.5%

Year 30

0.2% - 40.7%

1.0% ± 2.6%

4.0% - 100.0%

13.9% ± 12.9%

Markov Model II

Yearly Rupture Rate (YRR)

Cumulative Rupture Probability (CRP)

Range

Mean

Range

Mean

Year 5

0.0% - 46.0%

0.9% ± 4.3%

0.0% - 95.4%

2.5% ± 9.9%

Year 10

0.0% - 59.4%

1.2% ± 6.2%

0.0% - 99.8%

4.7% ± 13.4%

Year 15

0.0% - 84.1%

1.6% ± 8.3%

0.1% - 100.0%

6.9% ± 15.4%

Year 20

0.0% - 100.0%

2.0% ± 10.1%

0.1% - 100.0%

9.2% ± 17.6%

Year 25

0.0% - 100.0%

2.2% ± 10.7%

0.1% - 100.0%

11.7% ± 19.8%

Year 30

0.0% - 100.0%

2.3% ± 10.8%

0.1% - 100.0%

14.2% ± 22.0%